Cheltenham Preview
Days 1 & 2 Previewed below.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Looking at the favourite Cue Card, it has run 3 times so far over hurdles and won the Cheltenham bumper last year. However it raced LTO in December and therefore would have to overcome a 94 day absence. Only once has this race been won by a horse that ran in the Cheltenham bumper which was back in 2003 when Back in front won after coming 3rd in the Bumper. Another horse impacted by that stat is Al Ferof who finished 2nd in the bumper last year. Megastar, Hidden Universe and Dunraven Storm all finished down the field in that race. Al Ferof has had the required 4 runs and meets the stats apart from the bumper runm last season. A few horses come into the race unbeaten – Gibb River for Nicky Henderson who has won 3 races at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Wincanton. Spirit Son has won both races at Huntingdon and Exeter. Magens star has only had 2 runs and won both at Thurles and Clonmel. Sprinter Sacre hasn’t done much wrong to date and merits consideration after wins at Ascot and Ffos Las this year.
Arkle Chase
Top rated hurdlers normally run well in this and Medermit comes out the top of these on that basis. Finnans Rainbow was 5th here last year in the Neptune Hurdle and has won all 3 chases this year so far, however has only beaten 10 horses in the process which is a concern when facing a much stronger field in this race. It does like to lead from the front. Ghizao hasn’t ran since end of December which also rates a negative for me as i prefer horses to have had a recent run. Wasn’t in the same frame as a hurdler as Medermit or Finnians Rainbow. Did beat Captain Chris last time out which looks decent form. Realt Dubh won a Grade 1 last time out albeit not the most difficult and would appreciate any decent ground conditions despite having good form on the soft. Rock Noir would like some cut in the gorund and with McCoy on board could well make the frame here (McCoy has a great record in the race). It didn’t handle the Sandown fences too well but will be more suited to this track.
Champion Hurdle
Khyber Kim is a horse that merits respect but again i am concerned over the absence from December which also cast doubts over Menorah for me both having not run since the Cheltenham meeting in December, both horses may be capable of running well fresh but the festival stats are against it. Last years winner Binocular deserves to be favourite and really impressed at Kempton for me. It was a bit of a dud race last time out at sandown, however i am sure the horse will be thereabouts again on a course where it has run to the top of its ability each time. Could well win for the 2nd year running. Hurricane Fly is the one everyone hyped up following its high profile absence from previous festivals. I discount based on the fact it hasn’t raced here before and all form is centred around Solwhit who also flopped here last season. Peddlars Cross is a lovely horse and has yet to be beaten in its career. This is a serious horse and i cant believe it is still around 13/2 for a bet. Dunguib is the other one who could spring a surprise here if the horse can act round here. Wasn’t ridden well last year when a hot fav for the supreme novices.
Neptune Novices Hurdle
So Young has been well touted for this race and deemed to be the best of the irish challengers, however the horse hasn’t beaten anything of note so far. Ruby Walsh fancies this horse strongly and a number of people have napped it. Bobs Worth has won 2 trial races this year at Cheltenham and therefore is exposed to the fact we know it likes the trip and the course. This will be much tougher however beat Rock on Ruby last time which looks decent form. Oscars well seems to want a bit of cut in the ground and will drift from its current price, i would want about 5/1 to make this horse any value. Does have the graded form to win this race.
RSA Chase
Time for Rupert is undoubtedly the best horse in the race based on its 2 chases this season, it is a worry that the horse hasn’t run since December for me, in previous seasons the horse had had more runs than this at this stage and the 3 month gap is too much in my opinion. Horses win this race after being on the go all season, Bostons angel may be found out by the trip having decent form over 20f. Master of the Hall looks to have a decent chance but is it better on a flat course, will be in the shake up if acting on it. The Giant Bolster has Cheltenham form but at 6yo is possibly just too young to bag this. Aiteenthirtythree would be the 1st unbeaten horse since Denman in the last 10 years to win, however has followed a similar route as Denman so must have a chance here. Mikhael D'Hagunet is possibly the dark horse in the race as is possibly better than the bare form shown over fences to date.
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